Alex Ferguson expecting improvement. Can United turn it around?

26 September 08 by Bill

Alex Ferguson expects his team’s performance to improve starting with tomorrows home tie with Bolton. Speaking at his weekly press conference he said:

“The form of the team has started to come good. We expected that. I said last week that, by October, I think we will be back to normal.

“There have been a lot of encouraging signs in the last two games. Some of the football on Tuesday was excellent, as was the performance in the first half against Chelsea.

“If anything, in the second half some of the players showed that they needed a game. Gary Neville, Owen Hargreaves, Ji-sung Park and Dimitar Berbatov showed they really only had one game behind them going into such an important match. But it was a satisfactory display.”

Ferguson went on to talk about the importance of match fitness and declared of the players “we can expect better now”.

Both Ryan Giggs and Darren Fletcher have publicly backed the team to go on a winning run but has the damage already been done?

Out of eight matches played so far this season, United have won just 2; losing 2; and drawing 4. Since the Premier League began in the 92/93 season, United have won the trophy ten times but have never won so few games from their opening eight and gone on to win the title.

Fortunately, only four of the matches played so far have been in the Premier League from which we have taken a measly 5 points. On the ten occasions United have won the competition, only once has the points total been lower after 8 games and once it was the same.

After four Premier League matches in the 92/93 season, United had just 4 points but went on to win the league with a total of 84 points. Aston Villa were the closest team with 74 points. Back then there were 22 teams in the league so the season consisted of 42 matches. Converting these points totals to today’s 38 game season would give United 76 points with Villa trailing behind on 67 (maths: (points total /42) * 38).

Manchester United would have won zero titles with 76 point in all of the last 5 seasons. In fact, of the 16 seasons the Premier League has been in existence, the title has only been won once with less points and that was by us in the 96/97 season when we won with just 75 points. It is safe to say the bar has been raised and to have any title aspirations this season, a points total of considerably more than 76 will be required.

Last season, after four Premier League outings, United had managed this season’s total of just 5 points and as we all know went on to win the competition. We amassed 87 points with Chelsea not far behind on 85.

Last season though, Chelsea had problems. An injury crisis had a big impact and then there was the whole Mourinho thing. The departure of Mourinho slowed the Chelsea charge somewhat and with no chance of that happening again this season; will anything stop them running away with the title? Chelsea have been hit with injuries already this season with Essien, Deco and Carvalho all ruled out for a while so you never know what can happen.

Chelsea have so far played 5 games and have 11 points compared to last season’s 8. Last season Chelsea went on to drop 4 points in their next three matches as they drew 0 – 0 at home to both Blackburn and Fulham; a feat you wouldn’t expect this season given their current form and also because they play Stoke(A), Villa(H) and Middlesbrough(A) next. Chelsea fans will be expecting at least 7 points there if not more.

It is fair to expect more from Chelsea this season and I expect them to surpass last season’s points haul of 85. So in order to retain their crown, United are going to have to do something special.

It’s almost a cliché but, it is still early in the season. The start can only be described as bad but as Ferguson pointed out; there has been signs of improvement. Players like Nani and Anderson will be expecting to improve on last year and there exciting times ahead with the Brazilian trio of Possebon, Rafael and Fabio. Ronaldo is back from injury and the squad has been strengthened with the addition of Berbatov; albeit a seemingly unfit Berbatov.

Last season, the first win kicked United off to an 8 match winning run so if Fergie, Fletcher and Giggs are right, following this week’s win over Middlesbrough, the season is about to take a change for the better.